One of the most popular tennis betting strategies is to bet on the outcome of a head-to-head encounter between top two top-ranked players, such as Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. In terms of rankings there is little to choose between them – Nadal is ranked number one and Federer two, Nadal has won 16 Grand Slams, and the Swiss 20. So how do we decide who to back when the two meet in a tournament, and what tennis betting strategy should we use?

However, before we explore this, it is important to realise that, although this head to head betting strategy works for any match, it is likely to only offer interesting odds with top ranked players. There is unlikely to be very little money or a market for a match between two low ranked opponents in the first round of a Challenger tour event, for example, or, when a seed plays a qualifier in a Grand Slam tournament. You will not get good odds on the favourite – and a high chance of losing your money if you bet on his opponent.

On the other hand, you can get attractive odds when you find top players meeting each other in the latter stages of a major tournament – at the semi-final or final stage, for example, especially when the top two players in the world meet. Like Borg and McEnroe from an earlier era, Nadal and Federer have dominated the men’s game for more than a decade. Other players like Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray have won Grand Slams in that period, but the lion’s share of major tournaments has been won by the pair between them.

Since their first meeting at the Miami Open in 2004, the pair have played each other 38 times, with 12 of those meetings coming in Grand Slam tournaments, including 8 finals. The head-to-head record is clearly in favour of Nadal, with the Spaniard coming out on top 23 times to Federer’s 15.

Therefore, on the face of it, from the viewpoint of a tennis betting strategy, the odds should favour Nadal. However, if you look more closely at the record books, it is more complicated than that. Federer, in fact, has won the last 5 meetings between the pair of them, and Nadal has not beaten the Swiss for more than four years.

One key factor in their contests has been surface. Particularly in the early years, many of Nadal’s victories came on clay, where he is the undisputed master. Federer fared better on hard surfaces and grass which suits his aggressive game more than Nadal’s defensive baseline style. And, in a bid to prolong his career, Federer no longer plays on the clay court circuit. This means that when they do meet these days, it is likely to be on a surface which favours the game of the Swiss more than the Spaniard.

A similar logic and methodology should be applied when considering any head to head betting strategy. Look at their recent history, record on a particular surface, injuries and form. And bear in mind that, even with two evenly matched players, one may invariably beat the other, due to a psychological edge that they hold over their opponent.

Sites like MatchStat list all head to head results and statistics for all ITF, WTA and ATP tennis matches since 1969, so it is not difficult to research. As with any tennis betting strategy, the recommendation is to invest a little time and research: your head to head betting strategy, and your bet on the outcome of a match, will have a better chance to succeed as a result.