How to bet on the exact score of a match

How to bet on the exact score of a match

How to bet on the exact score of a match
Autor betsonly 13 Aug 2018

Why exact match score betting is heavily biased in favour of bookmakers and why it is not to be recommended, despite the favourable odds on offer.

Betting on the exact match score between teams is a popular football betting strategy and, on the face of it, a relatively simple one. However, whilst such offers from bookmakers are very beguiling, they actually mask the fact that the odds on offer are highly biased in favour of the betting house.

Unlike direct match odds where there are only three possible outcomes – a home win, a draw or an away victory – there are many more potential results when you are betting on the exact score. In fact, with a game where the two teams each have scored between none and six goals, there are 49 possible outcomes.

Even the results which might seem the most common - a 1-1 draw or home wins of 1 -0 and 2 -1 – have only occurred less than 12% of times each, if the history of English league football is taken as a guide.

When it comes to football betting tips, it is important to understand this from the viewpoint of the betting firm. They are commercial enterprises which exist to make money for their owners and shareholders. And the way they succeed is to earn more money than they have to pay out for gamblers.

Exact score match betting is very popular with them for this reason. First of all, because there are so many permutations on offer, they can offer high odds, which attract customers in the first place. The second reason is all to do with publicity. Bookmakers want some people to win, at good odds, because it makes for a good news story. That, in turn, garners them favourable PR, which attracts more customers through the door and online. It is a virtuous circle as far as they are concerned.

The third reason is that bookmakers, without the public realising it, shorten the higher price odds much more that with lower prices. What this means is that instead of the chances for a higher scoring exact match score being extrapolated in a linear, arithmetic fashion from those deemed more normal, they are actually tapered in favour of the bookmaker.

Again, it needs to be understood why they are doing this. Bookmakers do not like paying out too much money – it is bad for their business. And if the odds they are offering for a high scoring game are too attractive and too many people take the bet and it succeeds, then they will find their financial exposure uncomfortably high. Therefore, they take some of the risk away by “doctoring” the odds.

Statistical analysis indicates that the odds of betting on this type of outcome are really heavily biased against the bettor. For example, a 3 – 3 all draw would see more than two-thirds of all bets fail, and higher scores than that produce even more meagre returns. Even lower scores have low probabilities, in themselves, of occurring.

Therefore, the best football betting tip with regard to exact score matching is to stay away from it and not allowed yourself to be tempted by the attractive odds on offer. Whilst all betting is always biased in favour of the “house”, exact score matching is particularly weighed in their favour. Find other ways to bet on football that offer better chances of winning.